Hyundai in the news

That all sounds rosy, but if people don't buy the service,
they're not
going to survive. The history of new technologies is awash with "sure
fire" companies that didn't make it. Personally, I can't ever see
myself
paying for radio.

There are ample statistics on the take rates of factory installed XM.
We know, for example, that over 60% of people who buy a car that is
factory equipped with XM will become subscribers. 40%, which you may
be a member of, won't. Not now, at least.

The 60% take rate surely will not hold for Hyundai -- not because of
the cars they're in, but because they are going to Standard Equipment
rather than Factory Installed Options. But 50% is likely.

I've a lot of people say this until they try it. What most don't
understand it that isn't "radio" in the sense that they know it.

Personally, I can't ever see MY self counting something that would make
my work and drive time more relaxing out without trying it. But
that's just me.

 

I feel the same way... at least for now. I'm old enough to
remember when
having a radio (any radio) in a vehicle was a big deal. What I really
want
is a radio that does the same thing that TiVo does for my television
viewing!

XM already does this. See http://xmradio.com/myfi/index.jsp

This is just the first release, however. Before the year is up you can
expect to see more of this kind of functionality.

 

Let's see if they stick with it long-term.

XM's monthly churn rate is 1.2%.

 

And what percentage of new cars are sold with XM? That 60% could
actually be a relatively small number of people. Let's see how many of
them are still subscribers after a year or two.

Dream on. I'll bet that it won't even be half of that.

 

And what percentage of new cars are sold with XM?

GM is factory equipping between 20 and 30% of its cars with XM,
increasing quarterly. Honda is doing 400,000 units this year.
two.

We have several years history on this. One quarter the churn rate hit
1.6%; but other than that one quarter, XM's churn has consistently been
1.2-1.4%. I don't know what could be clearer.

Well, I'd definitely take that bet. You have no basis whatsoever for
your remark; meanwhile, there are a ton of statistics to support my
assertion. 50% will be in the ballpark. 40%? 60%? Could be. But
50% won't be far off.

 

Interesting. I'm sure we'll actually see some of these features become
useful as opposed to being minimally functional. (Actually, the SkyFi2 is
closer to what I want... at least the seed is there.)

 

So, at a 60% subscription rate, that means only 12-18% of people that
buy their vehicles actually become XM subscribers at all, let alone stay
with it.

Right now, the technology is new and chic. That will change once the
early adopters have had their fling with it. The turnover rate will
increase, it's just a matter of time.

Considering GM's numbers don't come anywhere near that, I'll stand by my
previous statement.

 

Considering GM's numbers don't come anywhere near that, I'll stand
by my previous statement.

WTF are you talking about?

60% of XM equipped GM cars become XM subscribers. I thought I had said
that already.

There is no end to this argument. Let's just agree to disagree and see
where we are a couple years down the road.

 

Apparently you are mathematically challenged. If only 20-30% of GM cars
are purchased with XM (presumably because only that number want it) and
only 60% of those become subscribers, then only 12-18% of GM buyers
become XM subscribers. The fact that Hyundai is giving XM away does not
mean that their overall subscription rate will be any higher.

 

Apparently you are mathematically challenged. If only 20-30% of GM
cars
are purchased with XM (presumably because only that number want it) and
only 60% of those become subscribers, then only 12-18% of GM buyers
become XM subscribers. The fact that Hyundai is giving XM away does not
mean that their overall subscription rate will be any higher.

If you can't see how screwed up your logic is on this, I don't think I
can help you. Totally convoluted reasoning.

The "take rate" (60%) is based on the number of units in which XM is
factory installed. NOT the number of vehicles manufacturered. One
could reasonably argue that the take rate will decline somewhat, maybe
to 50%. But your assertion is absurd.

YOU are calling someone else "mathematically challenged"??? LMAO.

 

presumably because only that number want it

You totally miss the point. I think you'll just need to wait and see
for yourself.

Expect an Hyundai take rate in the 50-60% range.

 

I have worked in the computer industry since the 1970s and *am* a
luddite. (I drive an AMC Hornet with a factpry AM radio and an
underdash 8-track player. I peek in on this newsgroup periodically as
the wife has a Sonata.)

As far as XM radio goes, not only would I not be willing to pay a
monthly fee for radio, the whole idea of listening to radio programs
from outer space coming from some kind of sputnik does not sit well
with me. I remember when people who claimed they were doing this would
be locked away in rubber rooms.

 

well my 2 cents ... ill pay for a head unit but will prolly never pay
for radio unless the FCC dont bother with censorship due to "foul"
language ... and even then i would find myself listening to cd's the
majority of the time finding new music to listen too through friends
(like xm has a real punk station)

also now lots of head untits you can purchase support .wma audio files
which puts about 400 normal sized songs onto one cd ( about 1500 songs
and thats if im remembering the numbers correctly )

so i would rather see .mp3 and .wma capabilities than xm on a vehicle

Lame

 

hey man ... i noticed your spamfighter add-in ... have you tried mozilla
mail? it uses a very good "learning" spam filter, within in a month it
catches some 99.9% of spam. i have been using it for a year now and
havent seen about 10 messages i had to mark as spam in 10 months ...

http://www.mozilla.org/products/thunderbird/ <-- mail client only
http://www.mozilla.org/products/mozilla1.x/ <-- whole product suite

using it for web browsing (took some gettin used too) has virtually
eliminated spyware/adware. now instead of a daily scan for that junk i
can scan once a month and still only have a few tracking cookies (have
to use IE for some sites still )

later
Lame